Um novo modelo de previsão de demanda para inovações radicais
A novel demand forecasting model for radical innovation
Neumann, Donald; Santa-Eulalia, Luis Antonio de; Yoshino, Rui Tadashi; Klasen, Jörg
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-65132013005000077
Production, vol.24, n3, p.605-617, 2014
Resumo
Este trabalho apresenta um novo modelo para a previsão de demanda de inovações radicais baseada em simulação de Dinâmica de Sistemas que combina conceitos do modelo de difusão de Bass e do modelo de escolha discreta. Diferentemente de outras abordagens existentes, esta proposta permite estimar não somente a fatia de mercado do produto, mas também seu comportamento no tempo (timing), a partir das preferências individuais do consumidor e das forças que as influenciam. O modelo proposto pode ser facilmente parametrizado através da Conjoint Analysis e foi testado em escala real no mercado alemão de carros elétricos. Os resultados obtidos colocam em evidência o potencial da abordagem proposta, auxiliando na compreensão dos principais fatores na escolha desse produto.
Palavras-chave
Previsão de demanda. Dinâmica de sistemas. Indústria automobilística. Pesquisa de mercado
Abstract
This work presents a novel simulation-based forecasting approach combining concepts from the Bass Diffusion Model and the Discrete Choice Model from a System Dynamics perspective. The proposed approach allows for the forecasting of the adoption rate and the timing of adoption by examining the underlying preferences of individual customers and the social forces that influence these underlying preferences. A real-scale preliminary application to the German market for electric cars, parameterized through a conjoint analysis, is provided. Simulation results show the potential of the proposed approach, which provides evidence for the main factors that influence the electric vehicle adoption process in Germany.
Keywords
Demand forecasting. System dynamics. Automotive industry. Market research
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