Simulação baseada em system dynamics para avaliação de cenários sobre geração e disposição de resíduos sólidos urbanos
Systems dynamics simulations for evaluating scenarios of urban solid waste generation and disposal
Simonetto, Eugênio de Oliveira; Lobler, Mauri Leonir
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-65132013005000034
Production, vol.24, n1, p.212-224, 2014
Resumo
O artigo apresenta o desenvolvimento, validação e experimentação de um modelo de simulação utilizando a metodologia System Dynamics, a qual permite avaliar e analisar cenários acerca da geração e disposição final dos resíduos sólidos urbanos (RSU). Para tanto, levou-se em consideração: a taxa de crescimento vegetativo populacional (nascimentos e mortes), percentual de resíduo sólido urbano enviado para cada tipo de destino final e a quantidade de resíduos gerada por habitante. A validação do modelo foi através da análise de cenários futuros para um determinado município da região sul do Brasil. Para a modelagem e execução do sistema foi utilizado o software Vensim, da Ventana Systems. Com os resultados gerados pelo modelo de simulação, os gestores da área podem, antecipadamente, discutir, avaliar e decidir possíveis medidas necessárias para melhorias ou adaptações na gestão de resíduos sólidos urbanos.
Palavras-chave
Simulação computacional. System Dynamics. Gestão de resíduos sólidos urbanos. Processo decisório. Resíduos sólidos
Abstract
This paper presents the development, validation and application of a simulation model using a systems dynamics methodology, which allows users and managers to evaluate and analyze scenarios in the context of urban solid waste generation and disposal. The developed model accounts for the following rates and parameters: rate of natural increase (birth rates and death rates), percentage of urban solid waste sent to each type of final disposal site and the amount of waste generated per capita. The simulated scenarios consider three distinct situations: (a) the current scenario with varying rates, (b) the current scenario with fixed rates and (c) a scenario with rates similar to those of the Netherlands. The model was validated through the analysis of future scenarios for a municipality in southern Brazil. Vensim- Ventana Systems was employed for the system modeling and development.
Keywords
Computational simulation. System Dynamics. Solid waste management. Decision-making process. Solid waste
References
ABELIOTIS, K. et al. Decision Support Systems in Solid Waste Management: A Case Study at the National and Local Level in Greece. Global NEST Journal, v. 11, n. 2, p. 117-126, 2009.
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE EMPRESAS DE LIMPEZA PÚBLICA E RESÍDUOS ESPECIAIS - ABRELPE. Panorama dos Resíduos Sólidos no Brasil-2010. ABRELPE, 2011.
BANI, M. S. et al. The Development of Decision Support System for Waste Management; a Review. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, v. 49, p. 161-168, 2009.
BARLAZ, M. A. et al. Life-Cycle Study of Municipal Solid Waste Management - System Description. Washington: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1995.
BHAT, V. N. A model for the optimal allocation of trucks for the solid waste management. Waste Management & Research, v. 14, p. 87-96, 1996.
BORENSTEIN, D.; BECKER, J. L. Validating Decision Support Systems. In: KENT, A.; WILLIAMS, J. G. (Eds.). Encyclopedia of Microcomputers. New York: Marcel Dekker, 2000.
BRASIL. Ministério das Cidades-Secretaria Nacional de Saneamento Ambiental. Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento: diagnóstico do manejo de resíduos sólidos urbanos - 2008. Brasília: MCIDADES-SNSA, 2010.
CERIC, V. Simulation study of an automated guided-vehicle system in an Yugoslav hospital. Journal of the Operational Research Society, v. 41, n. 4, p. 299-310, 1990.
CHANG, N.; PARVATHINATHAN,G.; BREEDEN, J. B. Combining GIS with fuzzy multicriteria decision-making for landfill sitting in a fast growing urban region. Journal of Environmental Management, v. 87, p. 139-153, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.01.011
CHANG, N.; WEI, Y. Siting recycling drop-off in urban area by genetic algorithm-based fuzzy multiobjective nonlinear integer programming modeling. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, v. 114, p. 133-149, 2000.
COSTI, P. et al. An environmentally sustainable decision model for urban solid waste management. Waste Management, v. 24, p. 277-295, 2004.
COVER, J. Introduction to System Dynamics. Powersim Press, 1996.
DAELLENBACH, H. G.; McNICKLE, D. C. Decision making through systems thinking. Palgrave Macmillan, 2005.
DAVIES, M. N. Back-office process management in the financial services - a simulation approach using a model generator. Journal of the Operational Research Society, v. 45, n. 12, p. 1363-1373, 1994.
DEATON, M. L.; WINEBRAKE, J. J. Dynamic Modelling of Environmental Systems. Springer-Verlag, 2000.
DYSON, B.; CHANG, N. B. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling. Waste Management, v. 25, n. 7, p. 669- 679, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2004.10.005
EUROPEAN COMMISSION STATISTICAL - EUROSTAT. Environment in the EU27 - Recycling accounted for a quarter of total municipal waste treated in 2009. Disponível em:
FINLAY, P. N. Introducing decision support systems. Oxford; Cambridge: Blackwell Publishers, 1994.
GHARAJEDAGHI, J. Systems thinking: managing chaos and complexity. 2nd ed. Elsevier, 2006.
HUANG, G. H.; BAETZ, B. W.; PATRY, G. G. Trash-Flow Allocation: Planning Under Uncertainty. Interfaces, v. 28, n. 6, p. 36-55, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.28.6.36
INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA - IBGE. Pesquisa Nacional de Saneamento Básico. IBGE, 2002. Disponível em:
INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA - IBGE. Censo Demográfico 2010. IBGE, 2010. Disponível em:
KELTON, W. D.; SADOWSKI, R. P.; SADOWSKI, D. A. Simulation with Arena. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998.
KUM, V.; SHARP, A.; HARNPORNCHAI, N. A System Dynamics Study of Solid Waste Recovery Policies in Phnom Penh City. In: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS SOCIETY, 23., 2005, Boston. Proceedings... Boston: SDS, 2005.
LAW, A. M.; KELTON, W. D. Simulation Modeling & Analysis. 2nd ed. McGraw-Hill, 1991.
MEADOWS, D. H.; MEADOWS, D. The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books, 1972.
MEADOWS, D. H.; RANDERS, J.; MEADOWS, D. Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. Chelsea Green, 2004.
MONTEIRO, J. H. P. et al. Manual de Gerenciamento Integrado de Resíduos Sólidos. Instituto Brasileiro de Administração Municipal - IBAM, 2001.
NANOHUB. NanoHUB.org - Online simulation and more for nanotechnology. Disponível em:
NETTO, A. O Desperdício do Lixo. Jornal Zero Hora, p. 32, 09 set. 2001.
O'LEARY, P. R. et al. Decision Maker's Guide to Solid Waste Management. Washington: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1999. v. 2.
PEGDEN, C. D.; SHANON, R. E.; SADOWSKI, R. P. Introduction to simulation using SIMAN. 2nd ed. McGraw-Hill, 1995.
PIDD, M. Simulating automated food plants. Journal of the Operational Research Society, v. 38, n. 8, p. 683-692, 1987.
RESOL ENGENHARIA - RESÍDUOS SÓLIDOS. Trabalhos Técnicos. Disponível em:
SALT, J. Tunnel Vision. OR/MS Today, v. 18, n. 1, p. 42- 48, 1991.
SILVA, E. C. P. O impacto da gestão do tamanho da força policial na taxa de violência em Curitiba: Uma abordagem qualitativa sob o referencial da dinâmica de sistemas. 2006. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia de Produção e Sistemas)-Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná, Curitiba, 2006.
SIMON, H. A. Prediction and prescription in systems modeling. Operations Research, v. 38, p. 7-14, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.38.1.7
SIMONETTO, E. O.; BORENSTEIN, D. A decision support system for the operational planning of solid waste collection. Waste Management, v. 27, p. 1286-1297, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2006.06.012
STRAUS, L. M. Um modelo em dinâmica de sistemas para o ensino superior. 2010. Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração)-Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, 2010.
SUFIAN, M. A.; BALA, B. K. Modeling of urban solid waste management system: The case of Dhaka city. Waste Management, v. 27, p. 858-868, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2006.04.011
TANSKANEN, J. H. Strategic planning of municipal solid waste management. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, v. 30, p. 111-133, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0921-3449(00)00056-2
TUNG, D. V.; PINNOI, A. Vehicle routing-scheduling for waste collection in Hanoi. European Journal of Operational Research, v. 125, p. 449-468, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00408-7
UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME - UNEP. Solid Waste Management. CalRecovery Inc., 2005. v. 1.
VENTANA SYSTEMS. Vensim Simulation Software. Disponível em:
WEINTRAUB, A.; MARTELL, D.; GUNN, E. Forest Management Challenges for Operational Researchers. European Journal of Operations Research, v. 104, p. 1-17, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(97)00329-9
WINZ, I.; BRIERLEY, G. The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Integrated Water Resources Management. In: International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 25., 2007, Boston. Proceedings... Boston: SDS, 2007.
ZANIS, P. et al. Evaluation of near surface ozone in air quality simulations forced by a regional climate model over Europe for the period 1991-2000. Atmospheric Environment, v. 45, p. 6489-6500, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.09.001
ZUTSHI, A.; SOHAL, A. Environmental management systems auditing: auditors´experiences in Australia. International Journal Environment and Sustainable Development, v. 1, n. 1, p. 73-87, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJESD.2002.000719
Facebook
Google+
Twitter
LinkedIn
Mendeley
StumbleUpon
CiteULike
Reddit
Email