Estudo da difusão da tecnologia móvel celular no Brasil: uma abordagem com o uso de Dinâmica de Sistemas
Study of the cellular phone diffusion in Brazil: a system dynamics approach
Figueiredo, Julio Cesar B. de
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-65132009000100015
Prod, vol.19, n1, p.230-245, 2009
Resumo
Este trabalho apresenta um modelo para estudo da difusão da tecnologia móvel celular. Baseado na teoria de difusão de produtos de Frank Bass (1969), e na metodologia de Dinâmica de Sistemas, o modelo foi aplicado ao caso brasileiro. Como resultado, foi possível reproduzir, com bom grau de aderência, as curvas acumuladas de celulares adotados no Brasil (pós-pagos, pré-pagos e total), bem como a curva de vendas anuais. Os resultados das projeções apontam para uma saturação da penetração de telefones celulares no Brasil por volta do ano de 2013, quando então o mercado deverá atingir um total aproximado de 150 milhões de aparelhos.
Palavras-chave
Modelagem, simulação, dinâmica de sistemas, telefonia celular
This work presents a model to study the diffusion of the mobile cell phone technology. Based on the Frank Bass' theory of Products Diffusion (1969), and on the System Dynamics methodology, the model was applied to the Brazilian case. As a result, it was possible to reproduce, with a good degree of adherence, the accumulated curves of cellular adopted in Brazil (post-paid, pre-paid and total), as so the annual sales curve. The projected results indicates a saturation of cell phones diffusion in Brazil around the year 2013, when the market will supposed to reach a total of approximately 150 millions of devices.
Modeling, simulation, system dynamics, cell phone technology
References
BASS, F. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Science, v. 15, n. 5, p. 215-227. 1969
BROWN, L. Innovation Diffusion: A New Perspective. London: Methuen. 1981
DICKERSON, M. D.; GENTRY, J. W. Characteristics of adopters and non-adopters of home computers. Journal of Consumer Research, v. 10, p. 225-235. 1983.
EDEN, C. Cognitive Mapping. European Journal of Operational Research, v. 36, n. 1, p. 1-13, 1988
FAHEY, L.; RANDAL, R. M. Learning from the Future. Nova York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
FORRESTER, J. W. Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1961.
FORRESTER, J. W. Urban Dynamics. Cambridge: Pegasus Communications, 1969.
GANESH, J.; KUMAR, V. Capturing the cross-national learning effect: An analysis of an industrial technology diffusion. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, v. 24, p. 328-327, 1996.
GEORGANTZAS, N.; ACAR, W. Scenario-Driven Planning: Learning to Manage Strategic Uncertainty. Westport: Quorum Books, 1995.
HAUSER, J.; TELLIS, G. J.; GRIFFIN, A. Research on Innovation and New Products: A review and Agenda for Marketing Science. Marketing Science, v. 25, n. 6, p. 687-717, 2006
HORSKY, D. The effects of income, price and information on the diffusion of new consumer durables. Marketing Science, v. 9, n. 4, p. 342-365, 1990.
HORSKY, D.; SIMON, L. S. Advertising and the diffusion of new products. Management Science, v. 1, p. 31-47. 1983
KALISH, S. A new product adoption model with price, advertising and uncertainty. Management Science, v. 31, n. 12, p. 1569-1585, 1985.
KALISH, S.; LILIEN, G. L. A market entry timing model for new technologies. Management Science, v. 32, n. 4, p. 194-205. 1986.
KELLY, G. A. The Psychology of Personal Constructs. Nova York: W. W. Norton, 1955
PIDD, M. Modelagem Empresarial: Ferramentas para a tomada de decisão. Porto Alegre: Bookman, 1998.
POWELL, M. J. D. UOBYQA: unconstrained optimization by quadratic approximation. Report DAMTP 2000/NA14, University of Cambridge. 2000.
ROBERTS, N.; ANDERSEN, D. F.; DEAL, W. A. Introduction to computer simulation: A system Dynamics modeling approach. Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley, 1983.
ROGERS, E. Diffusion of Innovations. Nova York: Free Press, 1995.
SENGE, P. M. A Quinta Disciplina: Estratégias e Ferramentas para Construir uma Organização que Aprende - Caderno de Campo. Rio de Janeiro: Qualitymark, 1994.
STERMAN, J. D. Business Dynamics: System Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2000.
STONEMAN, P. The Economics of Technological Diffusion. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 2002.
TAKADA, H.; JAIN, D. Cross-national analysis of diffusion of consumer durable goods in pacific rim countries. Journal Marketing, v. 55, p. 48-54, 1991.
TALUKDAR, D.; SUDHIR, K.; AINSLIE, A. Investigating New Product Diffusion Across Products and Countries. Marketing Science, v. 21, n. 1, p. 97-114, 2002.
VAN DEN BULTE, C.; STREMERSCH, S. Social Contagion and Income Heterogeneity In New Product Diffusion: A Meta-Analytic Test. Marketing Science, v. 23, n. 4, p. 530-544. 2004.
VENSIM. Vensim Help Manual. Vensim 5.5d. Disponível em:
WRIGHT, M.; CHARIETT, D. New product diffusion models in marketing: an assessment of two approaches. Marketing Bulletin, v. 6, p. 32-41, 1995.
Facebook
Google+
Twitter
LinkedIn
Mendeley
StumbleUpon
CiteULike
Reddit
Email