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https://prod.org.br/article/doi/10.1590/0103-6513.20170110
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Research Article

Application of bayesian additive regression trees in the development of credit scoring models in Brazil

Brito Filho, Daniel Alves de; Artes, Rinaldo

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Abstract

Abstract: Paper aims: This paper presents a comparison of the performances of the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), Random Forest (RF) and the logistic regression model (LRM) for the development of credit scoring models.

Originality: It is not usual the use of BART methodology for the analysis of credit scoring data. The database was provided by Serasa-Experian with information regarding direct retail consumer credit operations. The use of credit bureau variables is not usual in academic papers.

Research method: Several models were adjusted and their performances were compared by using regular methods.

Main findings: The analysis confirms the superiority of the BART model over the LRM for the analyzed data. RF was superior to LRM only for the balanced sample. The best-adjusted BART model was superior to RF.

Implications for theory and practice: The paper suggests that the use of BART or RF may bring better results for credit scoring modelling.

Keywords

Credit, Machine learning, Logistic regression, BART, Random Forest

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