Production
https://prod.org.br/article/doi/10.14488/1980-5411.20250133
Production
Thematic Section - Challenges in Production Economics Towards Sustainability and Digitalization

Managing uncertainty in product development and manufacturing integration: a multi-criteria, multi-phase evaluation

Daniele Gelain Rezende; Marcelo Quirino; Caio Santos Neiva; Rafael Marcuzzo; Marina Bouzon; Fernando Antônio Forcellini

http://dx.doi.org/10.14488/1980-5411.20250133 Production, vol.36, e20250133, 2026
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Abstract

Paper aims: This paper aims to analyze how different sources of uncertainty interact and influence decision making across the early phases of the Product Development Process, with particular attention to their implications for manufacturing readiness and project performance.

Originality: The study advances project management and product development research by integrating a phase based perspective of uncertainty with a causal modeling approach, offering a structured understanding of how uncertainty dynamics evolve rather than treating uncertainties as isolated or static factors.

Research method: The research adopts the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory method, supported by expert interviews, to model cause and effect relationships among eight uncertainty dimensions across the informational, conceptual, and detailed design phases of product development.

Main findings: The results indicate that technological and competitive uncertainties are the most influential factors in the informational phase, exerting strong mutual influence. In the conceptual phase, commercial uncertainty emerges as the most affected dimension, reflecting its dependence on strategic, technological, and market related factors. In the detailed phase, uncertainty intensifies, with commercial, technological, and resource uncertainties showing the highest levels of interdependence and overall importance.

Implications for theory and practice: The study contributes theoretically by demonstrating the value of a dynamic, phase sensitive view of uncertainty in product development projects. For practitioners, the findings highlight the need for adaptive, phase specific uncertainty management strategies that support better decision making, reduce late stage risks, and improve alignment between product development and manufacturing execution. These insights support more resilient projects and sustained competitive advantage.

Keywords

Uncertainty management, Product development, DEMATEL, Manufacturing integration, Project risk

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Submitted date:
01/06/2026

Accepted date:
04/16/2026

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