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https://prod.org.br/doi/10.1590/S0103-65132012005000050?lang=en
Production
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Caos determinístico em um modelo simplificado de cadeia produtiva

Deterministic chaos in simplified supply chain model

Figueiredo, Julio Cesar B. de

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Resumo

Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar um modelo teórico simplificado de cadeia produtiva onde as relações entre o número de competidores, os tempos de resposta para ajustes da produção e a intensidade da resposta das empresas levam intrinsecamente ao surgimento de oscilações caóticas na oferta e na demanda. No modelo proposto, desenvolvido com o uso da metodologia de dinâmica de sistemas, as flutuações irregulares na demanda e nos preços estão intimamente relacionadas com a própria estrutura da cadeia, ou seja, com suas regras, políticas e capacidades produtivas. São feitas considerações sobre a importância do estudo de caos aplicado à economia e são discutidas técnicas para caracterização de comportamento caótico em séries econômicas.

Palavras-chave

Cadeia de suprimentos. Ciclos caóticos. Dinâmica de sistemas

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to present a simplified supply chain model where the relations between the number of competitors, the delay in production adjustments, and the intensity response of each company lead, intrinsically, to the emergence of chaotic oscillations in supply and demand. In the considered model, developed with the use of the System Dynamics methodology, the irregular fluctuations in demand and prices are closely related to the supply chain structure, that is, its rules, policies and capabilities. Discussions about the importance of the study of chaos applied to the economy are developed and specific techniques for characterization of chaotic behavior in economic time series are presented.

Keywords

Supply chain. Chaotic cycles. System dynamics

References



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