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https://prod.org.br/doi/10.1590/S0103-65132009000100015
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Estudo da difusão da tecnologia móvel celular no Brasil: uma abordagem com o uso de Dinâmica de Sistemas

Study of the cellular phone diffusion in Brazil: a system dynamics approach

Figueiredo, Julio Cesar B. de

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Resumo

Este trabalho apresenta um modelo para estudo da difusão da tecnologia móvel celular. Baseado na teoria de difusão de produtos de Frank Bass (1969), e na metodologia de Dinâmica de Sistemas, o modelo foi aplicado ao caso brasileiro. Como resultado, foi possível reproduzir, com bom grau de aderência, as curvas acumuladas de celulares adotados no Brasil (pós-pagos, pré-pagos e total), bem como a curva de vendas anuais. Os resultados das projeções apontam para uma saturação da penetração de telefones celulares no Brasil por volta do ano de 2013, quando então o mercado deverá atingir um total aproximado de 150 milhões de aparelhos.

Palavras-chave

Modelagem, simulação, dinâmica de sistemas, telefonia celular

This work presents a model to study the diffusion of the mobile cell phone technology. Based on the Frank Bass' theory of Products Diffusion (1969), and on the System Dynamics methodology, the model was applied to the Brazilian case. As a result, it was possible to reproduce, with a good degree of adherence, the accumulated curves of cellular adopted in Brazil (post-paid, pre-paid and total), as so the annual sales curve. The projected results indicates a saturation of cell phones diffusion in Brazil around the year 2013, when the market will supposed to reach a total of approximately 150 millions of devices.

Modeling, simulation, system dynamics, cell phone technology

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